HTML5 or XHTML5 - Is XML's time coming? | Web Development

As a developer, I strive to code websites that work across the broadest possible range of browsers. Every decision is made with the customer in mind.

The title of this article is a bit mis-leading since I have no intention of blindly moving to HTML5. However, it would be interesting to do a bit of crystal ball gazing and estimate when that time will be and when that time does come, will it be HTML5 or XHTML5 we switch to?

As with most new web technologies, it takes a LONG time for browser support to mature sufficiently to warrant using them. There exist exceptions to this rule (Unsupported Cascading Style Sheet properties are ignored gracefully) but with HTML Document Types there really is no halfway ground. They are either supported or they are not.

Moving on, what exactly are the factors that I should consider before selecting an (X)HTML version. Obvious isn't it? Browser support based on current market share!

Current browser market share as of October 2010

Let us start by looking at the overall market share of each browser and then determine which browsers to support and which to relegate to the catacombs. I have added the age of each browser because it's a useful indication of recent technology support.

My preferred source for browser market share is StatCounter. StatCounter statistics are based on hits from 3 millions sites using Statcounter with more than 15 billion hits per month. On the gs.statcounter.com website select and display statistics by browser version.

As a developer, I often ask myself what I consider to be a significant enough browser market share to warrant supporting said browser. I usually go with the theory that if 1 or more people out of 100 are using a browser, then I consider that browser to be significant enough to support. The (X)HTML document type I select is based on the support across all browsers within this range. Last time I checked, the latest and best supported HTML Document Type was HTML 4.01. Is this still the case? Is XHTML now widely supported? Let us find out!

Could now be the time to migrate from 'HTML 4.01 strict' to XHTML?

From the table above, we can see that the older browser in the line-up with a considerable market share is IE 6, released on August 27th 2001. After IE 6 there is a massive 5 year gap before the second oldest browser, Internet Explorer 7, was released on October 18th 2006. This does not bode well for migrating to a more recent document type.

IE 6, with it's 7.42% market share, is simply too significant to ignore. Unfortunately for us, this means that all current sites we develop can't rely on technologies that are unsupported by this older browser.

IE 6 has official support for HTML 4.01 strict but lacks any real XML support so upgrading to any XHTML version is currently too risky.

What does the future hold?

It's relatively safe to assume that IE 6 will drop below the 1% market share barrier within the next two years. By 2012, we will start to see a shift away from IE 6 and more of a focus on IE 7 as the oldest browser in the line-up.

So what functionality does IE 7 support that IE 6 does not? Well, IE 7 supports many more recent CSS features but still lacks credible XML/XHTML support. IE 7 will just parse XHTML using their standard HTML parser. It may work in some cases but it is not true XML support.

The other browsers in the line-up do support true XML parsing. Is IE's parsing of XHTML as straight HTML enough to consider using XHTML? In my opinion, no. Their are no advantages in using a technology that has no apparent benefits over HTML other than well-formedness, especially when Internet Explorer does not even check it.

HTML 4.01 strict will remain the most recent and officially supported HTML Document Type for many years to come.

HTML5 readiness

First, a quick look at HTML5 readiness (html5readiness.com) reveals that chrome5+, safari5+, opera10+, firefox4+, and IE 9 (considerably less so) have good support for many HTML5 features.

Again, it looks like the big white elephant in the room is IE 9 when it comes to HTML 5 support. IE 9 lacks support for Geolocation, SVG filters, new Form elements, animations and transforms, whereas the other browsers already do.

Conclusion

Based on the above browser versions and current market trends, widespread HTML5 support is and will remain a very distant reality.  Unless we see a more significant shift away from Microsoft's browsers towards alternatives such as Chrome, Firefox, Safari, and Opera.